The Health Care Blog: The Technology Hype Cycle: Why bad things happen to good technologies
“# Technology Trigger – The initial launch; a new technology reaches public or press attention.
# Peak of Inflated Expectations – A few successful applications of the technology (often by highly selected individuals or organizations) help catalyze unrealistic expectations, often aided and abetted by hype driven by word of mouth, the blogosphere, or vendor spin.
# Trough of Disillusionment – Virtually no technology can live up to its initial PR. As negative experience mounts, the balloon is pricked and air rushes out. The press moves on to cover another “hotter” technology, like a moth flitting to the light (see Phase II).Hypecycle_2
# Slope of Enlightenment – A few hardy individuals and organizations, seeing the technology’s true potential, begin experimenting with it unencumbered by inflated expectations. Assuming that the technology is worthwhile, they begin to see and demonstrate its value.
# Plateau of Productivity – As more organizations ascend the “Slope of Enlightenment,” the benefits of the technology (which by now has improved from its initial clunky phase) become widely demonstrated and accepted. The height of the plateau, of course, depends on the quality of the technology and the size of its market.
You can chart the course of virtually any health information technology on the Hype Cycle curve.”
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